Define risk mathematically for each game.

Risk = Gain + Loss + Decision. Every interesting game moment involves potential gain, potential loss, and a choice the player makes. Without real consequences, there is no tension.
Ami — Combat Risk Engine

XP earned during exploration is "unbanked" — if the player dies, unbanked XP is lost. The longer you stay in the danger zone, the more XP you can earn but the higher the chance of losing it all. Risk level increases over time in the danger zone.
Ida — Economic Growth Engine

Players can take on debt to fund larger builds. Debt accrues interest over time. If debt exceeds −50 karma, the player goes bankrupt and progress resets. The risk is taking on too much debt for a bigger payout.
  • Create a paper math model showing gain/loss for 3 scenarios
  • Calculate: what happens if you succeed vs fail at each risk level
  • Write down the "breaking point" — where risk becomes too high
  • Compare Ami's risk (combat loss) vs Ida's risk (debt spiral)
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    Checkpoint

    Can each child explain the tension in their system? Can they describe a scenario where risk pays off and one where it doesn't?

    Paper math only. No code. No game engine. Just numbers and decisions.

    Making risk too punishing — the player quits because failure is too harsh.

    Making risk too easy — the player never feels tension because failure barely matters.

    Forgetting that risk needs a CHOICE — automatic loss isn't risk. The player must decide to take the gamble.

    Have them actually calculate numbers. "If XP reward is 10 and risk of death is 20%, what's the expected value?" This is applied math. Make it tangible. Use dice if helpful.